xmlns:og='http://ogp.me/ns#' Real Estate market in 2015 ~ The Prepared Guy

Friday, January 16, 2015

Real Estate market in 2015

My full time profession is as a Realtor and property manager.    Below is a link to the National Board of Realtors 2015 housing market forecast.

As a real estate professional I hope for the the best but as a prepared guy expect the worst. Just as I suspected this report is full of misinformation.  I am sure that Mr. Yun is only using the data that is provided to him by the 'authorities', by US government reporting.  We know for a fact that most if not all statistics reported by our wonderful US government are manipulated or at the very least 'massaged'.  Those of us who get our news from other channels outside of the mainstream media hear much the opposite of what the government is telling us.

Before you watch this video you need to have an understanding of the following:

1.  GDP growth has been adjusted and re-adjusted to suit the needs of those adjusting it.  The rules have been changed in order to make this number appear favorable when, if they were following the old rules of collecting and reporting this data. the truth is that GDP growth is not positive.

2.  The US government has continued to report that the unemployment  rate in the USA is dropping.  This is FALSE.  Again, the rules have been changed in order to manipulate this number.  Groups like 'Shadow Stats' who do their own calculations according to decades old practices tell us that real unemployment is closer to 24%.

3.  Mr. Yun states that many people believe that money printing and low interest rates typically weaken the dollar but that is not what is currently happening and thus is not true.  The dollar has been strengthening despite the quantitative easing and low interest rates but not for the right reasons.  The fact is that the US dollar appears to be strong right now because most every other currency in the world is falling dramatically.  This does not mean that the dollar is strong.  It means that the world financial system is royally screwed up.

4.  Mr. Yun states that inflation is subdued.  Of course this statement is based upon the governments made up stats.  This is untrue.  Again, Shadow Stats and other reputable watchdog businesses figure that real inflation is more like 9%,  I am sure that you all can feel the inflation in your budgets as well.  Right now gas prices are the exception.  This is due to deflation.  The understanding of when deflation and inflation occurs is complex.  Many experts disagree on what is happening.  I attribute this again to the extreme mess not only the US financial system is in but the condition of the entire worlds financial status.

5.  Confidence is up.  Ok.  This may be true, but only for those who have good jobs and can't miss an episode of the Kardashians. (I don't know if I spelled that right but frankly I don't care.)   92 Million Americans are out of the workforce and are not being counted by the US govt as unemployed.  That's a lot of less than confident people!   Confidence is manipulated by propaganda.  Our government is spewing out propaganda through false information which increases confidence and affects reports and forecasts like this one.  Don't be fooled.  Do your own research and evaluate your own personal situation.          

6.  Mr. Yun states that relaxing underwriting standards, or getting them back to 'normal' will help the market.  What he is referring to are the lending standards before the housing crash that were so loose they crashed the housing market.  These are not normal standards.  Normal standards are when you actually had to have a considerable down payment (like 10% to 20%) to be able to buy a home thus weeding out people who really couldn't afford to own a home. Stated income loans were not normal and neither are adjustable rate mortgages.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U9g76qQ6VsU


The real estate market conditions vary greatly throughout the country.  It is doing very poorly in some areas and outstanding in others.  Where you live will depend upon what your plan should be. Despite the real world conditions my conclusion is this; there is never a better time to buy or sell then right now. If you need to move closer to your work... don't hesitate any longer.  If you need to downsize or upgrade, don't hesitate.  If you need to stop renting and get into your own home, now is the time.  Interests rates will never be any better.  Lending terms may loosen up some but if you can't get qualified now you probably shouldn't be a homeowner.

Consider getting a 15 year loan instead of a 30 year loan.  If you can't afford the home with a payment amortized over 15 years you probably shouldn't buy it.  Just like automobile loans that use to be only 2 years in length they have been stretched out to 6 years so that manufacturers can sell more cars and make more money.  If you can't afford a car payment amortized over 2 years you probably can't really afford the car.  Lending has not loosened to help us average people out,  It is only to help the banks and manufacturers make more money.

Now why would a real estate professional be telling you all of these things?  You say it will probably hurt my real estate business?  You are probably right but my business is not to make money.  My business is to be of service to my fellowmen.  I would not encourage you to buy a home if you truly can't afford it even if you may qualify for a loan.  If you are in the market to buy or sell property I'd love to help.  You can learn more about me at www.patriotrealtor.blogspot.com 







2 comments:

Hello there…Well Florida is a nice place and in every manner it is good. I was too thinking to buy shelter at Florida. I was not aware of these figures that 25 % buyers invest here. Moreover thank you so much for this post. Keep posting and keep growing.
Aspen Real Estate

Thanks for sharing as it is an excellent post would love to read your future post.

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The purpose of this site is to provide you with information about what I have learned, my experience, and what my motivations are as a Prepared Guy. I have always felt driven to be ready for any situation by something powerful deep inside me. Being prepared has always served me well. I feel compelled to help others do the same.
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